2026 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS (October)

With the news that Warner Bros will be campaigning Chase Infiniti in Best Actress for One Battle After Another, she makes a solid first entrance on the chart at #6, just behind Amanda Seyfried in The Testament of Ann Lee, whose pickup by Searchlight Pictures boosts her chances significantly.

With incremental moves for Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue and Sydney Sweeney in Christy, that pushes Julia Roberts (After the Hunt), Tessa Thompson (Hedda) and Jodie Foster (A Private Life) out of the top 10 for now. Jennifer Lawrence (Die My Love) manages to hold onto her spot and the top four remain unmoved.

Here are my 2026 Oscar nomination predictions in Best Actress for October.

1. Jessie Buckley – Hamnet (Focus Features)

2. Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value (NEON)

3. Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24)
Berlin Best Lead Performance

4. Cynthia Erivo – Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)

5. Amanda Seyfried – The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight Pictures) ↑

6. Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros) NEW

7. Emma Stone – Bugonia (Focus Features) ↓

8.  Jennifer Lawrence – Die My Love (MUBI)

9.  Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue (Focus Features) ↑

10.  Sydney Sweeney – Christy (Black Bear) ↑

11. Julia Roberts – After the Hunt (Amazon MGM) ↓

12. Tessa Thompson – Hedda (Amazon MGM) ↓

13. Laura Dern – Is This Thing On? (Searchlight Pictures)

14. Jodie Foster – Vie Privée (Sony Pictures Classics) ↓

15. Julia Garner – Weapons (Warner Bros/New Line) ↓

16. June Squibb – Eleanor the Great (Sony Pictures Classics)

17. Eva Victor – Sorry, Baby (A24)

18. Emma Mackey – Ella McCay (20th Century Studios)

19. Dakota Johnson – Materialists (A24)

20. Margot Robbie – A Big Bold Beautiful Journey (Sony Pictures/TriStar)

Other contenders: Sally Hawkins – Bring Her Back (A24), Saja Kilanni – The Voice of Hind Rajab (awaiting U.S. distribution) NEW, Lucy Liu – Rosemead (Vertical), Nadia Melliti – The Little Sister (TBD) – Cannes winner

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.