Four movies crossed $1 billion worldwide in 2025. Ne Zha 2 made the majority of its money overseas, but the other three—Lilo & Stitch, Zootopia 2, and Avatar: Fire and Ash—were hits both domestically and in other territories. As it turns out, four looks to be the magic number for 2026, as well. We’re not saying no fifth movie has the chance of really breaking out. After all, Oppenheimer nearly made $1 billion and who’s to say Christopher Nolan’s follow-up, The Odyssey, won’t do the same? But in terms of movies with a substantial likelihood of crossing that ten-digit figure, there are really only four.
Let’s rank those four by said likelihood. Are any of them sure things beyond a shadow of a doubt? Let’s find out.
4) The Mandalorian & Grogu
Image Courtesy of Lucasfilm
We’re now eight years removed from the failure of Solo: A Star Wars Story, and it seems Disney is ready to once more spend a few hundred million on a theatrical Star Wars adventure. But they’re also playing it somewhat safe, because The Mandalorian has a built in audience.
However, The Mandalorian was at its most popular in its first season (2019) and its second (2020). Then there was a three-year gap and it came back with its final season, which wasn’t as well-received. Will that drop continue with The Mandalorian & Grogu? It’s possible, but doubtful. The trailer does a good job of building hype, even if it’s more of a good-time-vibe than a this-is-an-event vibe.
Chance it crosses $1 billion: 60%.
3) Toy Story 5
Image Courtesy of Pixar
Because of re-releases (especially when it comes to the first film), comparing the Toy Story films’ worldwide box hauls adjusted for inflation isn’t fully apples-to-apples, but it helps reveal a trend. And it only bodes semi-well for Toy Story 5.
Adjust the first film’s 1995 worldwide gross and you get about $767 million. Adjust Toy Story 2‘s and the result is $961 million. Do the same for Toy Story 3 and the total comes out to $1.576 billion. That was the summit, because then Toy Story 4‘s inflated gross is $1.352 billion. Still massive, sure, but the big question attached to Toy Story 4 at the time was true. The third film ended on the perfect note, so why did we need a fourth? That feeling still applies to the fifth, so it’s reasonable to expect another drop. The question is, will that drop be enough to take it below $1 billion? Likely not, but this won’t be a Zootopia 2-sized smash.
Chance it crosses $1 billion: 75%
2) Spider-Man: Brand New Day
image courtesy of sony pictures releasing
The MCU is a far less financially sure property than it once was. Not even a (finally) solid Fantastic Four movie was a particularly large success. At this point, it takes a real event within the MCU to become a juggernaut. For instance, Deadpool & Wolverine in Phase Five and Spider-Man: No Way Home in Phase Four.
However, while the MCU as a whole isn’t as sure a thing as it once was, Tom Holland’s Spider-Man is still immensely popular. And even though Spider-Man: Brand New Day is intentionally a smaller-scale reset after No Way Home, there is still plenty of reason to believe this one will cross $1 billion. It will be closer to Spider-Man: Far from Home‘s $1.133 billion than No Way Home‘s $1.921 billion, but the safe money is still on this one reaching ten digits.
Chance it crosses $1 billion: 85%
1) Avengers: Doomsday
Image courtesy of walt disney studios motion pictures
Again, the MCU’s financial viability isn’t what it once was. But, come on, Avengers: Doomsday‘s going to cross $1 billion.
Robert Downey Jr. returning, albeit in a different role, is alone enough to ensure this lucrative outcome. The bigger question is just how lucrative Doomsday is going to be. It supposedly has a price tag upwards of $600 million so, even if it hits $1 billion, that’s not necessarily a success. All eyes are going to be on Doomsday, not just in terms of it being the winter movie season’s number one event film, but also in terms of what it means for the future of the overarching universe.
Chance it crosses $1 billion: 100%