“Melania,” a documentary that shadows the first lady of the United States in the lead-up to Donald Trump’s second presidential inauguration, is eclipsing box office expectations.
The film has generated $7.04 million from 1,778 North American theaters, a huge start for a documentary (especially one that doesn’t involve music and isn’t about a concert). Projections, which fluctuated throughout the weekend, launched above pre-release estimates of $3 million to $5 million. Amazon MGM spent a staggering amount of money on the film, acquiring the doc for $40 million and then shelling out $35 million on the marketing spend. Theater owners keep about half of ticket sales, which will make it difficult to justify the theatrical cost of “Melania.”
However, a deep-pocketed streamer like Amazon cares about much more than box office grosses; the studio plans to recoup some of its costs when “Melania” lands on its Prime streaming service after its theatrical run. “Melania” will need to generate around $40 million to $45 million at the domestic box office to break even, according to sources familiar with the economics of similar films. Those sources believe that “Melania” has secured lucrative licensing deals that will offset the high promotional costs.
“We’re very encouraged by the strong start and positive audience response, with early box office for ‘Melania’ exceeding our expectations,” says Amazon MGM’s head of domestic theatrical distribution Kevin Wilson. “This momentum is an important first step in what we see as a long-tail lifecycle for both the film and the forthcoming docu-series, extending well beyond the theatrical window and into what we believe will be a significant run for both on our service. We are confident in the long-term value this rollout will deliver to customers both in theaters, and for years to come on Prime Video.”
For “Melania,” opening weekend crowds were mostly older women; 72% of ticket buyers were female and 83% were above the age of 45, according to Amazon MGM. Nearly 75% of audiences were white, with Hispanic, the next-largest demo, at 11% of ticket buyers. Meanwhile the top moviegoing markets were outside of traditional locations like New York City and Los Angeles and included Dallas, Orlando, Tampa, Phoenix and West Palm Beach — cities where the president is popular. “Melania” may have one of the largest discrepancies between audience sentiments and critical reviews; the film boasts an “A” grade on CinemaScore exit polls as well as a blistering 6% average on Rotten Tomatoes.
There’s been outsized media coverage about “Melania,” at least compared to other documentaries, because of the lavish price tag and the president’s own promotional push. (He called “Melania” a “must watch” and claimed that showtimes are “selling out, FAST!” on social media platforms. Meanwhile the film’s subject tweeted over the weekend the doc is “loved by all.”) Amazon MGM’s mega spend for “Melania” has raised questions about the company’s motivations: Was this film really about its interest in an insider account of the White House or an attempt to cozy up to the current administration?
“As good as this opening is for a documentary, for any other film, opening like this — against $75 million in costs with very little foreign potential — would be a problem. But this is a political investment, not a for-profit movie venture,” suggests David A. Gross, who runs the movie consulting firm Franchise Entertainment Research. “If it helps Amazon with a regulatory, taxation, tariff or other government issue, then it will pay back; $75 million is insignificant to Amazon.”
“Melania” is opening in theaters against a backdrop of political unrest, with ICE raids in Minneapolis and other parts of the country prompting a bipartisan backlash. Brett Ratner, whose credits include “Rush Hour” and “X-Men: The Last Stand,” directed the film, marking the first project since his career was derailed in 2017 by sexual assault allegations. (He has denied those accusations.) Rolling Stone reported that two-thirds of the crew members who worked on “Melania” in New York asked that their names not be formally credited on the documentary.
“Melania” placed at No. 3 on domestic box office charts behind two fellow newcomers, Sam Raimi’s survival thriller “Send Help” and YouTube creator Markiplier’s very indie adventure “Iron Lung.”
After a close race, “Send Help” narrowly pulled ahead with $20 million from 3,475 North American locations. Disney and 20th Century’s film collected a softer-than-expected $8.1 million at the international box office, bringing its global tally to $28 million. That’s a solid start for the $40 million production, which is expected to stick around beyond its debut, thanks to great word-of-mouth and enthusiasm for original horror.
“Send Help” brought out a younger male crowd; 53% were men while 53% were between the ages of 18 to 34. The R-rated film earned a positive “B+” grade on CinemaScore exit polls and a 93% Rotten Tomatoes average from critics. Rachel McAdams and Dylan O’Brien star in “Send Help” as a looked-over employee and her toxic boss, who get stranded on a deserted island after a plane crash.
“Iron Lung” impressed in second place with $18 million from 3,015 cinemas. This turnout is especially notable because ticket sales nearly matched the result of a major release from Disney but without mainstream resources. Markiplier (his real name is Mark Fischback) wrote, directed, financed and distributed “Iron Lung” against a reported $3 million budget.
Even if the film’s box office performance is front-loaded, meaning “Iron Lung” quickly runs out of steam, it’ll be a hugely successful endeavor for Fischback, who boasts 73 million followers across digital platforms. The YouTube star also leads the post-apocalyptic adventure, which is based on the 2022 indie video game and follows a fugitive who has to scavenge natural resources in an ocean of blood after a rapture. “Iron Lung” doesn’t have a CinemaScore but boasts a 90% audience average on Rotten Tomatoes. According to exit polls, 60% of inaugural crowds were male and 85% were between 18 and 34 years old. Meanwhile 71% cited “an actor in the lead role” as their main reason for wanting to see the film.
“‘Iron Lung’ is an extension of the Markiplier online phenomenon. This kind of thing happens a couple times a year when a fan frenzy comes to the movies from another medium,” Gross says. “It’s good news every time; it jolts the market with fresh energy.”
“Shelter” tumbled to the No. 6 spot with $5.5 million from 2,726 theaters in its first weekend of release. That’s a dismal start against its $50 million production budget. The R-rated film was directed by Ric Roman Waugh, the filmmaker behind a slew of Gerard Butler-led action thrillers like “Greenland” and “Angel Has Fallen.” It follows a reclusive man who unwittingly sets off a violent chain reaction after he rescues a young girl from drowning in a terrible storm. “Shelter” is being released by newer distributor Black Bear, which plans to unveil the Matthew McConaughey-led “The Rivals of Amziah King,” ensemble comedy “Spa Weekend” and Guy Ritchie’s “Wife and Dog” over the next few months.
In limited release, A24’s Charli xcx mockumentary “The Moment” scored with $427,940 from four screens — averaging $106,985 per location. A24 says it’s the third biggest limited opening of the post-COVID era as well as one of the biggest for A24 all-time behind only “Marty Supreme” and “Uncut Gems.” It’s unclear how the momentum will sustain when “The Moment” expands nationwide. However, the Charli-centric movie doesn’t need to reach the box office heights of “Marty Supreme” or “Uncut Gems” to be financially successful; “The Moment” carries a modest $4 million price tag.
Overall this weekend was 83% above the previous frame, which was hobbled by a massive winter storm, though 5% below the same period last year. Through the first month of the year, grosses are 13% above 2025. Hollywood and cinema owners are hoping a range of blockbusters — from “Avengers: Doomsday” and “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” to Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey” and “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” — will keep up momentum and propel revenues near pre-pandemic heights.