What a difference an awards show makes.
Timothée Chalamet is tumbling in Gold Derby’s Actor Awards odds after his shocking loss at Sunday’s BAFTA Awards to Robert Aramayo for I Swear. The Marty Supreme star remains the frontrunner to win SAG-AFTRA’s guild prize for Best Actor but is down 8 percent from last week.
Michael B. Jordan, meanwhile, is up 6 percent in the same time period. There seems to be a shift in prediction sentiment towards the Sinners star in light of the N-word controversy at the BATFAs.
Jordan and costar Delroy Lindo were presenting a BAFTA category when John Davidson, a Tourette syndrome advocate and subject of the nominated biopic I Swear, involuntarily shouted a racist slur from his seat. BAFTA producers failed to edit the moment out of the broadcast, causing an uproar on social media and resulting in several apologies, including one to Jordan and Lindo “for their incredible dignity and professionalism.”
With voting not concluding until Feb. 27, there’s a chance a last-minute surge could upend the Actor race.
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Chalamet (61 percent to win) and Jordan (23 percent) are joined in the Best Actor lineup by Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon (12 percent), Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another (4 percent), and Jesse Plemons for Bugonia (under 1 percent).
Chalamet, Jordan, and DiCaprio appear in films that are also nominated for the top category of Best Ensemble, which could give them a boost as it demonstrates more overall support from SAG-AFTRA members. Four of the past five Best Actor SAG winners had a corresponding Best Ensemble bid, with Brendan Fraser (The Whale) being the exception.
Timothée Chalamet at the 2025 Actor AwardsJeff Kravitz/FilmMagic
Last year, Chalamet triumphed in this same category for A Complete Unknown and made headlines for proclaiming at the podium that he wanted to be “one of the greats.” Should he win back-to-back, he would be the first in the history of the Actor Awards to achieve the milestone in any of the four individual film performance categories.
Chalamet would also become only the second person to ever win multiple Best Actor statuettes — after Daniel Day-Lewis, who has won three times. DiCaprio could also become a two-time winner after winning for The Revenant a decade ago.
The guild’s other three film acting categories are also experiencing turbulence post-BAFTA Awards.
In Best Actress, Jessie Buckley is up 2 percent for Hamnet; she remains undefeated in televised precursor awards this season. For Best Supporting Actress, Wunmi Mosaku has climbed 10 percent for Sinners after her surprise win at BAFTA. And Sean Penn has surged a whopping 22 percent in Best Supporting Actor and is now toe-to-toe with One Battle After Another costar Benicio Del Toro, who leads the race.
Film Ensemble Film Actress Film Actor Film Supporting Actress Film Supporting Actor Film Stunt Ensemble TV Comedy Ensemble TV Comedy Actress TV Comedy Actor TV Drama Ensemble TV Drama Actress TV Drama Actor TV Limited/Movie Actress TV Limited/Movie Actor TV Stunt Ensemble
Film Ensemble Film Actress Film Actor Film Supporting Actress Film Supporting Actor Film Stunt Ensemble TV Comedy Ensemble TV Comedy Actress TV Comedy Actor TV Drama Ensemble TV Drama Actress TV Drama Actor TV Limited/Movie Actress TV Limited/Movie Actor TV Stunt Ensemble
Film Ensemble Film Actress Film Actor Film Supporting Actress Film Supporting Actor Film Stunt Ensemble TV Comedy Ensemble TV Comedy Actress TV Comedy Actor TV Drama Ensemble TV Drama Actress TV Drama Actor TV Limited/Movie Actress TV Limited/Movie Actor TV Stunt Ensemble
Keep checking back to Gold Derby for the final list of Actor Awards later this week ahead of the March 1 ceremony, which will stream on Netflix.