To borrow a line croaked by Timothée Chalamet-as-Bob Dylan in last year’s A Complete Unknown, the times they are a-changin’. And not in a good way for the Marty Supreme star. Over the course of two weeks, the narrative around Chalamet’s inevitability has crumbled as his Oscar odds have cratered.
Here’s a brief timeline of how Chalamet went from prohibitive champ to potential chump, chronicling key moments during his Oscar campaign and his ranking in the Gold Derby predictions.
Oct. 6, 2025: Marty Supreme gets a stealth premiere at the New York Film Festival; by the next morning, Chalamet vaults to No. 1 in the Best Actor Oscar nomination predictions, edging ahead of One Battle After Another’s Leonardo DiCaprio.
Mid-October 2025: Led by Chalamet, girlfriend Kylie Jenner, and members of her attention-grabbing family, Marty Supreme limited-edition streetwear designed by Doni Nahmias goes viral. Celebrities ranging from Justin Bieber, Frank Ocean, and Tom Brady to Michael Phelps, Steph Curry, and Misty Copeland share images of themselves wearing various Marty-branded jackets, jumpsuits, and hoodies, which are instantly snapped up and then resold for $10,000-plus online. Chalamet remains percentage points ahead of DiCaprio.
Nov. 15, 2025: Chalamet “leaks” a Zoom call with A24 employees where he pitches increasingly wilder ideas to promote the film, including painting the Statue of Liberty orange. While Lady Liberty remains unscathed, the fake pitch session does mark the launch of a social-first blitz that includes orange blimp flights over major cities, shooting hoops and shooting the sh-t with Adam Sandler, and channeling the irrepressible Marty Mauser in interviews while also moonlighting in rap collabs. Chalamet still holds a slim lead over DiCaprio in the Gold Derby predictions.
Dec. 25, 2025: Marty Supreme finally arrives in theaters with a 93 percent fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes and an 89 “universal acclaim” score on Metacritic.
Jan. 4, 2026: As predicted, Chalamet wins Best Actor at the Critics Choice Awards, the first of the televised precursors. He’s also the MVP of the room, as dozens of well-wishers navigate his security detail to stop by and greet him and Jenner at the Marty table. His odds for a Best Actor Oscar nomination rise above 97 percent.
Jan. 7, 2026: Chalamet scores his second consecutive Best Actor nomination at SAG-AFTRA’s Actor Awards, and is immediately favored to win again — something that has never been done before. He opens up a 3 percentage point lead over DiCaprio in Oscar nomination odds.
On the same day, The New York Times publishes a story titled “Can Timothée Chalamet Break This Oscar Curse?” examining the checkered history of 30-something performers and the Best Actor statuette. The thinkpiece launched other thinkpieces extolling and eviscerating Chalamet’s chances.
Jan. 11, 2026: As predicted, Chalamet wins Best Comedy/Musical Actor at the Golden Globes, beating his closest competition, DiCaprio, and going 2-for-2 at the outset of the new year to cement his Academy Award front-runner status. Chalamet’s Oscar nomination odds peak at 98 percent, with his lead over No. 2 DiCaprio jumping to 8 points.
Jan. 22, 2026: The Oscar nominations are unveiled, with Chalamet immediately established as the favorite in a field that also includes DiCaprio, Golden Globe Best Drama Actor winner Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon). Chalamet also notches a second nod, as a producer on the Best Picture-contending Marty Supreme. Going into the day, Chalamet’s odds are 86 percent to win Best Actor, what would be his high point in the race. Post-nominations, he dips slightly to 81 percent.
Jan. 26, 2026: Four days following the Oscar nominations, Page Six Hollywood, the gossip site of the newly launched California Post, alleges that Safdie oversaw a toxic and unsafe environment on a previous film set. The claims in the anonymously sourced, unconfirmed piece, which many in the industry see as part of a potential smear campaign to take down Marty Supreme (in the vein of last year’s Emilia Pérez scandal), are then widely amplified in other outlets and on social media. Chalamet’s odds stand at 79 percent.
Feb. 21, 2026: Chalamet joins his Interstellar buddy Matthew McConaughey at an event sponsored by CNN and Variety. During their conversation, Chalamet talks about how he has been a cheerleader for films and “keeping movie theaters alive.” He then adds, “I don’t want to be working in ballet or opera where it’s like, ‘Hey! Keep this thing alive,’ even though no one cares about this anymore. All respect to the ballet and opera people out there. … I’m taking shots for no reason.” The tossed-off line goes largely unremarked at the time.
Feb. 22, 2026: In the snub heard ’round the world, the heavily favored Chalamet loses Best Actor at the BAFTA Film Awards to British performer Robert Aramayo (I Swear). Chalamet’s aura of invincibility disappears overnight. Going into the awards, his odds of winning the Oscar were 76 percent.
Feb. 23, 2026: By the next day, Chalamet’s odds to win Best Actor at the Actor Awards are down 8 percent. His Oscars dip slightly to 72 percent.
Feb. 27, 2026: Oscar voting opens. Chalamet remains the clear leader, holding steady at 72 percent.
March 1, 2026: Despite going into the Actor Awards with a 26-point lead over Michael B. Jordan, Chalamet loses a major precursor award for the second straight week. His Oscar odds, which begin the night at 71 percent, start to free fall.
March 2, 2026: Jordan surges 23 points post-Actor Awards to raise his Oscar odds to 27 percent. Although still the favorite, Chalamet’s chances are down 19 points overnight and hover just above 50 percent.
March 5, 2026: As Oscar voting closes, Chalamet leads the Best Actor odds over Jordan, 45 percent to 39, but the narrative has shifted: the Sinners star is now seen as ascendant. How the Academy voters responded, if at all, won’t be known until the awards ceremony on March 15.
March 6, 2026: For the first time all Oscar season, Chalamet loses his No. 1 position in the Gold Derby odds, as the rising Jordan continues to ride the Actor Awards wave. As Chalamet’s fortunes shift, his quotes about the ballet and opera resurface, and he faces backlash from the likes of The Metropolitan Opera, the Boston Ballet, the English National Opera, London’s Royal Ballet and Opera, and the Seattle Opera.
March 7, 2026: While Chalamet has some defenders, over the next few days, Doja Cat, The View, Jeopardy, and even the principal of his high school pile on. And the internet, which had been Chalamet’s secret weapon during the early months of the campaign, begins to turn on him, via memes like How to Lose an Oscar in 10 Days.
March 10, 2026: Jordan now leads Chalamet 55 percent to 31 percent. Chalamet has lost nearly 40 percentage points in just 10 days.
Best Actor
1.
Michael B. Jordan
Sinners
2.
Timothée Chalamet
Marty Supreme
3.
Wagner Moura
The Secret Agent
4.
Leonardo DiCaprio
One Battle After Another
5.
March 15, 2026: Did the stunning losses and subsequent chatter really hurt Chalamet? Was he ever really the clear favorite? Could he still salvage a Hollywood ending? All the questions will be answered, when the winner is revealed.