A new YouGov survey on this year’s Oscar nominees for Best Picture finds that the movie Americans are most likely to say will win (and most likely to say should win) is “Sinners.”
19% of Americans think “Sinners” should win Best Picture and 17% say it will win. “Frankenstein” and "F1" are the next most common preferred winners (7% and 6%, respectively), but far behind "Sinners." Similar shares say these two movies will win Best Picture (6% and 5%, respectively). 4% say “One Battle After Another” should win and 7% expect it to win.
Public opinion about which movie will win Best Picture doesn’t always reflect what the Academy ultimately decides. In 2025, only 2% of Americans predicted "Anora" would win Best Picture. In 2024, 24% correctly guessed "Oppenheimer" would win.
The 2026 Best Picture contenders Americans are most likely to have seen are “Sinners” (28% have seen it) and “Frankenstein” (25%), followed by “F1” (14%), “One Battle After Another” (14%), and “The Secret Agent” (12%). No more than 8% have seen each of the other five nominees. About half (48%) of Americans say they’ve seen one or more of this year’s nominees. Between 20% and 29% say they haven't seen each of the nominees but want to see it.
60% have not seen “Marty Supreme” and don’t want to; 59% say the same about each of “Bugonia” and “Sentimental Value.”
Democrats are more likely than Republicans to have seen “Sinners” (37% vs. 23%). 28% of Democrats and 47% of Republicans say they haven't seen it and don’t want to.
As was the case in 2025 and in 2024, Americans who have seen each movie are more likely than the general population to say it should win Best Picture. 44% of Americans who have seen "Sinners" say it should win, compared with 19% of Americans overall. There is also a large gap between viewers and the general population on "F1" (29% vs. 6%).
Overwhelming majorities of Americans have positive opinions of the Best Picture nominees they’ve seen. Among people who saw “Sinners,” 56% loved it and 36% liked it.
Posted by ThrowawayGreenWitch