With over $6.7 billion earned at the worldwide box office, Avatar is one of the highest-grossing film franchises of all time. Despite those lofty numbers, the series appears to be in a bit of a state of flux. The most recent entry, last year’s Avatar: Fire and Ash, ended its run as the lowest grossing of the three films to date. For most films, a haul of $1.49 billion would be cause to celebrate, but when compared to the $2.92 billion and $2.33 billion totals posted by the first two Avatar films, an argument can be made that Fire and Ash underwhelmed. As a result, the 2029 and 2031 dates reserved for Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 have been described as “tentative,” and there could be some major changes in store.
In a report in The Wrap analyzing the future of the Avatar franchise, it’s mentioned that there have been “conversations” to figure out “how to make future Avatar movies cheaper and shorter.” Additionally, Disney could be having second thoughts about “a planned Avatar expansion to one of its California theme parks,” and might opt to go with Zootopia-themed attractions instead, capitalizing on that IP’s massive popularity.
“Cheaper and Shorter” Would Be the Best for Avatar
Image Courtesy of 20th Century Studios
Leading up to the premiere of Avatar: Fire and Ash, Cameron expressed interest in finding a more efficient way to make new Avatar movies. He even had a contingency plan in place in case Fire and Ash bombed and ended the franchise after three films. So while producer Rae Sanchini says things are “full speed ahead” on the next installments, these logistical questions have been at the forefront of Cameron’s mind for a while. Unsurprisingly, the Avatar films require a substantial amount of time and resources to make. Fire and Ash was budgeted at $350 million, with an additional $150 million going to the marketing campaign. As box office trends shift, that model arguably isn’t sustainable, especially since Fire and Ash made nearly $1 billion less than its predecessor.
Going in a cheaper and shorter direction would benefit the Avatar franchise moving forward. Obviously, a smaller production budget would mean Avatar 4 wouldn’t have to break the bank to turn a profit. Spending $500 million on a single film is tenable when the end result is over $2 billion at the box office, but Fire and Ash represented diminishing returns on that front. A shorter run time would also be a way to boost commercial prospects; theaters would be able to book more screenings per day. Fire and Ash is a series-long 198 minutes, which might have scared some people off from seeing it in the theater.
The great challenge here, of course, is making a “cheap” Avatar film in a way that still feels like an Avatar film. Thanks to Cameron’s unique vision and mastery of filmmaking craft, the franchise has a distinct scale and scope that only hundreds of millions of dollars could buy. Avatar‘s greatest selling point is the visuals that demand to be seen on the biggest of screens. Through innovative 3D technology, Cameron has immersed viewers in the world of Pandora, and that could be difficult to replicate with less money available in the budget. If Avatar 4 wasn’t a breathtaking cinematic experience, it would be a sign that the series has reached its expiration point.
What’s encouraging here is that everyone involved seems to be on the same page here. Long before Avatar: Fire and Ash‘s box office numbers came out, Cameron was thinking about how he could scale back on costs. Hopefully, this means there won’t be any clashes between the creative team and studio executives as they work together to find a viable solution. It’ll be challenging, but technology is constantly evolving, so someone as gifted and committed as Cameron should be able to find a way to streamline the process, ensuring Avatar 4 and 5 eventually see the light of day.
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