It’s been more than five years since Daniel Craig hung up his tuxedo in “No Time to Die,” and Hollywood still hasn’t pulled the trigger on his replacement.
But the internet? The internet has opinions.
Prediction market Kalshi has been tracking the Bond casting race in real time, and right now, it’s a surprisingly competitive field.
Here’s where things stand. (Note: odds fluctuate based on the market.)
THE FAVORITE: CALLUM TURNER — 38%
The “Masters of the Air” star has held the top spot on Kalshi’s board since November 2025, though GQ reports he’s slipped from a peak of 66.7% at the top of the year, which tells you everything about how chaotic this race has become.
Turner is British, 36, and by most accounts fits the Ian Fleming physical description better than almost anyone else in the running.
Basically, he looks like James Bond. Which, historically, has been a pretty good start.
Bonus points: Turner is engaged to Dua Lipa, which means the franchise could land the perfect Bond theme song artist as a package deal.
THE SURGER: JACOB ELORDI — 18%
The “Euphoria” and “Saltburn” actor has been rocketing up the board after reports surfaced that he may have actually met with “Bond 26” director Denis Villeneuve.
The case for Elordi: he’s 6’5″, brooding, and would bring a whole new generation of fans to the franchise.
The case against: he’s Australian. And producers have been very publicly insistent that the next Bond will be British.
THE PERENNIAL: AARON TAYLOR-JOHNSON — 11%
At this point, “28 Years Later” star Aaron Taylor-Johnson has been linked to this role for so long that it’s basically a personality trait.
Some UK tabloids even reported back in 2024 that he’d already accepted it. He hadn’t. He’s still here. He’s still on the board.
Never count out the guy who simply refuses to go away.
THE SUPERMAN: HENRY CAVILL — 10%
The former “Superman” and “The Witcher” star has the physicality, the jawline, and the brooding intensity the role demands.
The problem? Cavill’s latest film, the action thriller “In the Grey,” recently opened to just $3 million domestically. It was somehow outgrossed that same weekend by a 40-year-old “Top Gun” re-release, per Collider.
Producers handing the keys of a billion-dollar franchise to someone whose last movie lost to Tom Cruise’s 1986 highlights reel is a tough sell.
THE ONE THAT GOT AWAY: IDRIS ELBA — 6%
For about a decade, Idris Elba was the internet’s consensus pick for the next James Bond.
Then he ruled himself out. NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!! (Sorry, we aren’t good at breakups.)
The “Luther” and “The Wire” star acknowledged the conversation around his potential casting had become so fixated on his race that it overshadowed everything else, and he walked away from it.
But he’s still on the Kalshi board. The internet hasn’t fully let go.
Honestly? Neither have we.
THE PETER PARKER PROBLEM: TOM HOLLAND — 4%
Spider-Man himself has been floated as a legitimate contender for the world’s most famous spy, and the market has taken notice, with his odds reportedly fluctuating every time his name gets mentioned.
The case for Holland: he’s British, he’s box office gold, and he’s proven he can carry a massive franchise.
The case against: it’s really hard to unsee Peter Parker ordering a martini shaken, not stirred.
Meanwhile, fans want his fiancée Zendaya as the next Bond girl. Please. This woman eats villains for breakfast. Just make her 007!
SO WHEN WILL WE ACTUALLY FIND OUT?
Amazon MGM recently confirmed that formal auditions are still underway, however, a shooting start of 2027 and a 2028 release window means this race has plenty of runway left.
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