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Sinners is showing some signs of life now that it’s been given the Ensemble tribute by the Gotham awards, following the announcement that Frankenstein has received the Vanguard Tribute.
The Gothams used to have budget requirements for films, but they abandoned that in 2023. That means both Sinners and Frankenstein are also eligible for nominations and awards. It does open the door for One Battle After Another to dominate.
At any rate, the Gothams do have one requirement that I wish the Oscars would adopt, though I doubt they will, considering the heavy concentration of international voters:
Best Feature requires U.S.-based directors, producers, or writers (at least two individuals across those roles).
International films are now eligible in more categories (e.g., performances, screenplay) but have a dedicated Best International Feature category.
Full criteria are available on the official submissions site.
I’m not sure how the Gothams get away with it, but they do. I expect their nominations not to be mainstream but to still adhere to the rather snooty tastes of those they will select as judges (and there are like four judges per category). I do not factor the Gothams in much when it comes to the Oscars, but the presence of Sinners and Frankenstein at this stage does indicate a rallying on behalf of their studios to campaign for the Oscars. So that’s good for Sinners. It needs a boost.
Frontrunners and Challengers
Best Picture
Frontrunner — One Battle After Another
Challengers as of now — Hamnet, Sinners
Going for it: the massive uniform splooge fest by the critics. It also got a boost from Taylor Swift. It reflects the singular world view of the folks trapped inside the Doomsday Bunker, the Left has built for itself (1984), that sees the entire country outside of it as rampaging white supremacists and racists. I don’t know if they really believe they are living under a “fascist,” a “dictator,” and a “king,” or if they are just saying it because they’ve become addicted to hyperbole and have forgotten how to talk normally. Just listen to Jean Smart:
Actress Jean Smart says Trump “wishes” to be a dictator, while calling on Americans to join ‘No Kings’ protest.
“The current resident of The White House seems to think that he has everybody fooled. But he has made it abundantly clear that he admires dictators.” pic.twitter.com/tkDAzI8oQ3
— Oli London (@OliLondonTV) October 15, 2025
The people attending the No Kings protest are the kind of individuals who will likely vote for One Battle After Another, as no other movie I can think of reflects their worldview more perfectly than this one, except maybe Everything Everywhere All At Once. That is the best argument for how this movie wins.
Ordinarily, a movie that was this expensive and lagging at the box office would have no chance at all of winning the Oscar for Best Picture. But can this one win for the Jean Smart of it all? The Robert De Niro, Bruce Springsteen, and Jane Fonda of it all? I guess it could. But will it?
Maybe. I think a movie that is driven by love and emotion, like Hamnet, probably has a better shot at doing well on a preferential ballot. Sinners would need a revival that would have to start with the critics. Sinners began the year as the defacto frontrunner because for a time it seemed like it had a good “Oscar story” and it was such a success it was hard to believe Hollywood, especially THIS Hollywood, after their inclusivity mandates, their unending demands for intersectional casting would say wow, Ryan Coogler made good. He turned out a movie that made over $300 million and still cost less than One Battle After Another.
Sinners was still doing double digits two weeks into its run. It dominated the cultural zeitgeist and really did feel like the film of the year. But being a frontrunner usually means you’re unseated at some point and that happened with One Battle After Another when the Oscar Expert and others declared the race over. He and others are even predicting Ryan Coogler will get snubbed in the Best Director category (just try it, I dare you).
Sinners is, without a doubt, the best film I’ve seen this year (although that isn’t saying much since I haven’t seen much). But we know Best Picture doesn’t always go to the best film. It doesn’t even go to the film that stands the test of time. It goes to Miss Right Now, not Miss Right.
One Battle After Another is without a doubt a favorite of the critics. So can it sweep the critics awards and the guilds the way that Everything Everywhere All At Once did? It might. We can’t rule it out. We might add a new category for it, Too Woke To Fail. Although that was Emilia Perez last year and look at how that turned out.
I think people vote with their hearts and the movie that will win more hearts than any other is Hamnet.
Best Director
As with Best Picture, this is down to the same three: Paul Thomas Anderson winning his first for One Battle, or Chloé Zhao winning her second, making history again as no woman has ever won two Best Directing Oscars. Not that many have even won one – you can count them on one hand: Kathryn Bigelow, Chloé Zhao, Jane Campion. Ryan Coogler would become the first Black director in 98 years of Oscar history.
Frontrunner: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Challengers: Chloé Zhao, Hamnet; Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Best Actress
Speaking of crazy people trapped in a hell of their own making, Jennifer Lawrence seems to embody your typical protester of the No Kings rally in this clip from Die My Love, where she bitches about a poor barking dog. Robert Pattinson reflects the rest of us just trying to get on with it. But seriously, this does also reflect the current mood of these voters and that might help her ascend in this race. Best Actress is still a big question mark. There is Jessie Buckley and everyone else.
It is a competitive race, with Cynthia Erivo coming up in Wicked For Good. There are big stars who might get placed at the Golden Globes, since they have two categories and many of the contenders will be in the Musical/Comedy category. Figuring out the five nominees will be the tricky part.
Frontrunner: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Challenger: Cynthia Erivo, Wicked for Good
Best Actor
It looks like this category is wide open with no real frontrunner at the moment. Maybe Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme, along with Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another, maybe Jeremy Allen White in Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere. There is potentially Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine, but the box office for that has also slightly diminished its chances too. If One Battle sweeps the season, it probably sweeps Leo along with it.
Frontrunner: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Challenger: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Supporting Actress
Amy Madigan is still one of the most talked-about performances of the year in the real world, outside of the bubble. Whole generations will now know her as Gladys as opposed to how we old timers know her, as a character actress and beloved industry vet who has been around. Weapons should be considered Best Picture material, whether the pundits see it that way or not. It depends on whether you want to fight for Hollywood’s survival or not. If you do, Weapons is easily among the best films of the year, and much of that is down to Madigan’s performance. She is the frontrunner, though it’s hard to see if these folks will go that way or not.
Frontrunner: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Challenger: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Supporting Actor
To the hive mind, the frontrunner for a while has been Stellan Skarsgård for Sentimental Value. That came out of Cannes and it just stuck. Me, I think it’s Paul Mescal’s to lose for Hamnet but I could be wrong. There is also Sean Penn coming in hot for One Battle After Another. It might turn into its own No Kings protest if he wins. Imagine his agonizing speech about “fascism”? So maybe they want to go all in for it, especially considering the midterms are next year.
Frontrunner: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Challengers: Sean Penn, One Battle; Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Predictions
Best Picture
Hamnet
Sinners
One Battle After Another
Frankenstein
Sentimental Value
Wicked for Good
Bugonia
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Weapons
It Was Just An Accident
Best Director
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked for Good
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
Best Actor
Timothée Chalament, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Supporting Actress
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Ariana Grande, Wicked for Good
Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man
Supporting Actor
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Original Screenplay
Sinners
Sentimental Value
Weapons
Bugonia
It Was Just An Accident
Adapted Screenplay
One Battle After Another
Hamnet
The Life of Chuck
Frankenstein
Wicked for Good
Casting
Sinners
One Battle After Another
Wicked For Good
Hamnet
Springsteen Deliver Me From Nowhere
International Feature
No Other Choice
Sentimental Value
Nouvelle Vague
Sirat
The Secret Agent
Editing
One Battle After Another
Sinners
F1
Marty Supreme
Weapons
Cinematography
One Battle After Another
Hamnet
Sinners
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Production Design
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Sinners
Frankenstein
Wicked: For Good
Hamnet
Costume
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Score
Sinners
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Frankenstein
F1
Makeup and Hairstyling
The Smashing Machine
Christy
Frankenstein
Wicked: For Good
Sinners
Sound
Sinners
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Wicked: For Good
One Battle After Another
And that was all she wrote. Have a nice weekend…
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