Political Pressure Building But Market Suggests Status Quo Will Hold
While public opinion on the monarchy has ebbed and flowed in recent years, actual steps toward holding a national referendum remain minimal.
Zarah Sultana’s intervention earlier this month marked one of the most direct calls for abolition from a sitting MP in recent years.
But without broader political support, especially from the major parties, the path to a national vote is unclear.
That explains Ladbrokes’ 100/1 pricing on a referendum taking place in 2026, suggesting betting sites see little short-term legislative appetite to address the issue formally.
That said, at 16/1 before 2030, the market leaves room for change if the conversation gathers momentum, particularly if younger generations become more politically active on the issue.
What the expert says…
The monarchy remains a stable institution, but this market highlights growing appetite for reform. While a 2026 referendum is highly unlikely, the 16/1 by 2030 could attract long-term political punters.
Jake Ashton – Current Affairs Expert – OLBG.com