As of 5 p.m. PT, Oscar nomination voting is officially closed.
Multiple conversations with Academy voters all throughout this week have revealed a race far more unpredictable than the pundits’ consensus suggests. While some categories appear locked, others are poised for the kind of upheaval we haven’t seen since 2003, when “The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King” dominated, but nominations surprised across multiple categories, such as Keisha Castle-Hughes, Samantha Morton, Djimon Hounsou, Shohreh Aghdashloo and Marcia Gay Harden, along with a rare lone director nomination for another Brazilian auteur, Fernando Meirelles).
Here are some of the revelations learned this week from voters:
The “F1” factor
Joseph Kosinski’s “F1” from Apple Original Films is very well-liked among voters and feels like a viable entry in the best picture race. The old Academy guard loves it. Voters repeatedly describe it as “great” and “good old-school entertainment,” the kind of movie that could easily claim one of the 10 best picture slots despite a solid, albeit not overtly passionate, critical reception. Don’t underestimate the power of the older voters who built this industry. This Brad Pitt and Damson Idris vehicle could zoom into the race, also given it has support to land three tech noms such as film editing, sound and visual effects and mimic a previous contender like “Ford v Ferrari” (2019).
“I fucking love that movie,” one anonymous voter of the Producers Branch says.
Think of it like “comfort food” with AMPAS members.
Neon
The International Film Split
The international enthusiasm is genuine, but it’s also fractured. Neon has flooded the zone with non-English-language films, creating an unexpected problem: vote splitting.
Norway’s “Sentimental Value,” Brazil’s “The Secret Agent,” South Korea’s “No Other Choice” and France’s “It Was Just an Accident” all have aspirations beyond the international feature category, particularly in best picture. More importantly, they are vying for attention from voters who frankly don’t watch as many movies as industry insiders assume.
“Sentimental Value” is undoubtedly the priority watch among the titles, sailing toward multiple nominations, including best picture, possibly director, and three or four acting nods. But here’s the revelation that matters: “It Was Just an Accident,” while admired and respected, may not have the broad support to crack picture, director or screenplay. Some conversations with voters also suggest it could be one of the big snubs of the day, including in international feature, where the race is surprisingly competitive.
“That movie [‘It Was Just an Accident’] never came up in my algorithm,” one voter admits. “I don’t know what that is.”
Tunisia’s “The Voice of Hind Rajab” has considerable support. Also watch for “Kukoho” from Japan, “The President’s Cake” from Iraq, Switzerland’s “Late Shift,” Taiwan’s “Left Handed Girl” (co-written by last year’s four-time Oscar winner Sean Baker) and Germany’s “Sound of Falling.”
“One Battle After Another“
©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett C
Why the surplus rule could decide the director race.
This year’s director race may be decided less by passion and more by mathematics.
Under the Academy’s preferential nomination system, voters rank their choices. Once ballots are cast, a “magic number” — the quota required to secure a nomination — is calculated. For most categories, that number is determined by dividing the total ballots by six and adding one. For the best picture category, it’s the total ballots divided by 11, plus one.
Here’s where the surplus rule comes in.
If a contender receives significantly more votes than needed to hit that quota, those extra votes are not discarded. Instead, they are redistributed — at a reduced, fractional value — to the voter’s second choice (or third, if the second choice is already safe). In best picture, this redistribution is triggered when a film receives 10% more than the quota; in other categories, it’s triggered at 20%.
The goal is to prevent wasted votes and reward consensus.
This is why Paul Thomas Anderson’s strength could quietly reshape the director lineup beneath him. If Anderson overwhelmingly clears the quota (which many think he might), his surplus votes could be redistributed across secondary choices — and those choices are not uniform. Some Anderson voters lean toward Josh Safdie, others toward Guillermo del Toro, Joachim Trier or Ryan Coogler.
“I love Guillermo,” one voter declares. “I’ll vote for him every time, no matter what.”
I have found that a “One Battle After Another” voter tends to be a “Marty Supreme” voter, but what is clear is that loving “One Battle” does not automatically translate to voting for Safdie. That fragmentation makes the director race unusually fluid and dangerously close.
This may be one of the tightest director lineups in years.
sabrina lantos
Lucky number seven in best actor, but which will be the luckier five?
Best actor appears to be a genuine toss-up between Timothée Chalamet, Leonardo DiCaprio, Ethan Hawke, Michael B. Jordan, Wagner Moura, Jesse Plemons and a potential surprise in Joel Edgerton for “Train Dreams.”
The key factor isn’t always the performance itself but the movie’s overall strength and what I call “coattail votes.” If Emma Stone ranks high among best actress voters, Jesse Plemons benefits from voters who put both on their ballots. Ethan Hawke enjoys similar advantages, given his popularity within the Actors Branch and his film’s likely original screenplay nomination (and even a potential surprise in best picture), which could even help it snag the last best picture slot.
“That is my favorite movie of the year,” one artisan branch member tells Variety about Richard Linklater’s “Blue Moon.” “I don’t know how you don’t vote for Ethan Hawke and Andrew Scott.”
Wagner Moura won the Golden Globe for best actor (drama) at the perfect moment. I know many feel like his trajectory (along with the film) is mimicking Fernanda Torres and “I’m Still Here” last season. However, based on current voter sentiment, Moura feels far more vulnerable than Torres did at this stage.
Michael B. Jordan in “Sinners” has landed all the essential nominations he needs, but I would be lying if I didn’t say I won’t feel secure about his inaugural Oscar bid until the names are read. Based on the feedback from voters and strategists, he seems to be in.
Then there’s Joel Edgerton for “Train Dreams,” whose support may have quietly grown if the film overperforms down the ballot.
“Bugonia”
©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection
Best Actress is the category most likely to implode
Best actress has the most potential for a complete facelift. I feel secure declaring only one lock: Jessie Buckley for “Hamnet.”
Emma Stone (“Bugonia”) has entered what I’m casually referring to as her “Cate Blanchett-era” — a phase in which her respect and love carry enormous weight, even without having to campaign. Renate Reinsve (“Sentimental Value”) benefits from international support and overlaps with voters backing Stellan Skarsgård and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas.
Kate Hudson (“Song Sung Blue”) is walking into next week with The Actor Awards and Golden Globe nominations, along with the support of her very well-liked parents, Kurt Russell and Goldie Hawn. The legendary Hollywood couple have been stumping for her the past few weeks and have helped make her a viable contender.
Then there’s Chase Infiniti from “One Battle After Another,” the newest and least well-known name of the group. She could suffer a shocking miss that would mimic Richard Gere in “Chicago” or Joseph Fiennes in “Shakespeare in Love,” only to be forgotten despite being in the best picture winner.
That leaves a couple of potential candidates whose names came up with a few voters, such as Amanda Seyfried (“The Testament of Ann Lee”), Tessa Thompson (“Hedda”), and maybe even Eva Victor (“Sorry, Baby”).
“Even though I didn’t really like the movie,” one voter say regarding “The Testament of Ann Lee” and her performance in Mona Fastvold’s drama, “I thought Amanda was astounding, and I haven’t seen a better performance this year.”
Long story short, I don’t know where we end up on this one. It’s easy to follow the tea leaves. It’s harder to pick out potential cracks that could emerge.
Courtesy of Netflix
Documentary and international races are a trap.
Documentary Feature remains one of the most unpredictable categories, with voters acknowledging a pattern of snubbing presumed frontrunners. Admired films like “The Perfect Neighbor,” “The Alabama Solution,” or “2000 Meters to Andriivka” may still be vulnerable, particularly with an increasingly international voting body.
International Feature is just as treacherous. Beyond the expected titles, there is genuine enthusiasm for films from Tunisia, Japan, Iraq, Taiwan, Germany and Switzerland — several of which voters describe as personal discoveries rather than consensus picks.
Gwyneth Paltrow in “Marty Supreme”
Supporting Categories: Safe and Surprising
Probable supporting actor noms include Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn from “One Battle After Another,” Jacob Elordi from “Frankenstein,” Paul Mescal from “Hamnet,” and Stellan Skarsgård from “Sentimental Value.” Andrew Scott for “Blue Moon” has support but no clear path to replacing anyone. Watch for Miles Caton from “Sinners” or a Delroy Lindo surprise, similar to the Judd Hirsch/Paul Dano swap we saw with “The Fabelmans.”
Supporting actresses feel safer with Amy Madigan (“Weapons”), Teyana Taylor (“One Battle After Another”) and Wunmi Mosaku (“Sinners”) the most likely to score nominations. “Sentimental Value” discovery Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas is most viable from her film, while Elle Fanning may narrowly miss (yet again) after last year’s snub for “A Complete Unknown.”
Ariana Grande for “Wicked: For Good” feels solid given her Globe, SAG and BAFTA shortlist. If there’s a surprise, Odessa A’zion (“Marty Supreme”) from the SAG lineup could appear, or even her co-star Gwyneth Paltrow as a replacement nominee, given her Oscar-winning status, much like Judi Dench replaced Caitriona Balfe from “Belfast.”
“Hamnet”
©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection
The artisans have the wildcards
“Sinners” could make history with its nominations totals, especially if it picks up two original song nominations for “I Lied to You” and “Last Time (I Seen the Sun).” Netflix’s “Train Dreams” might score in score or song given the love for the movie, but did enough voters get to it in time? “Wicked: For Good” could emulate “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” with an acting nomination and a couple of tech nods, and the Stephen Schwartz factor is something to consider for music categories.
“Hamnet” missed both the American Society of Cinematographers and the British Society of Cinematographers nominations, which could signal a potential miss on Oscar morning. Meanwhile, Darius Khondji’s legendary status helps “Marty Supreme” as a potential for cinematography.
James Vanderbilt’s “Nuremberg” has considerable support that many aren’t currently clocking. That could translate into nominations for costume design, original score, adapted screenplay, and perhaps even picture.
So what does it look like on Oscar nomination morning?
Two potentials are out there.
It’s business as usual. Go with the precursor clues, and you’ll likely score 80% in your predictions.
Or…
We could be heading for a 2003-style upset year. That year, despite “The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King” dominating, we saw Fernando Meirelles nominated for his beloved Brazilian film “City of God,” Jude Law nominated for best actor for “Cold Mountain” after missing SAG, and a complete upheaval in the best actress category. Charlize Theron and Diane Keaton were joined by Naomi Watts for “21 Grams,” Keisha Castle-Hughes (who switched from supporting to lead for “Whale Rider”) and Samantha Morton for “In America” with zero precursor support.
Those nominations replaced presumed locks like Scarlett Johansson (campaigning in supporting but kept appearing in lead categories for “Lost in Translation”), Evan Rachel Wood for “Thirteen,” and Nicole Kidman for “Cold Mountain,” coming right after her Oscar win for “The Hours.”
Variety’s final predictions drop next week before nominations are announced Jan. 22.
Based on what voters are actually saying, chaos feels inevitable. Below are five of the most interesting best picture ballots that were shared with me by anonymous Oscar voters.
“Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere”
©20th Century Studios/Courtesy
Voter #1 (Artisan Branch Member)
“Blue Moon”
“Train Dreams”
“Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere”
“Marty Supreme”
“Nuremberg”
“One Battle After Another”
“Wicked: For Good”
“Ella McCay”
“Hamnet”
“Nouvelle Vague”
Voter #2 (Acting Branch Voter)
Actor in a Leading Role
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
Jesse Plemons, “Bugonia”
Hugh Jackman, “Song Sung Blue”
George Clooney, “Jay Kelly”
Actress in a Leading Role
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Die My Love”
Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good”
Voter #3: (Producers Branch Voter)
“Sinners”
“Wake Up Dead Man”
“Weapons”
“Hamnet”
“Sentimental Value”
“F1”
“Frankenstein”
“Rental Family”
“Warfare”
“Marty Supreme”
Voter #4 (Costume Branch)
“Nouvelle Vague”
“Nuremberg”
“Sinners”
“Bugonia”
“Frankenstein”
Voter #5 (Executives Branch)
“Train Dreams”
“Bugonia”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
“Marty Supreme”
“The Lost Bus”
“Sentimental Value”
“A House of Dynamite”
“Black Bag”
“The Secret Agent”