Following last night’s premiere in Washington D.C. attended by President Donald Trump and packed with his acolytes, the first lady’s documentary Melania is on course to open to a better-than-expected $8 million or more at the North American box office, according to early Friday returns.
If that sunny forecast holds, the film will pull off of surprise victory and come in a solid No. 3 behind fellow newcomers Send Help and Iron Lung after icing out Jason Statham’s new action pic, Shelter. No one saw that coming.
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However, all bets are off when it comes to comparisons given the context around Melania, directed by the controversial filmmaker Brett Ratner in what he hopes marks his Hollywood comeback. For one, Amazon MGM Studios plunked down $40 million for worldwide licensing rights in a deal widely seen as a move to cozy up to the White House. Whatever the case, it makes Melania the most expensive doc in history.
And that’s before Amazon spent $35 million on a global marketing campaign for the PG-rated film, with roughly $15 million allocated for U.S. and $10 million for overseas. A domestic theatrical campaign for even the biggest docs generally runs no more than $5 million to $7 million. There are exceptions, including former vice president Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth and Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11. Sources say the domestic marketing spend was close to $15 million on each of those titles because of the awards factor, not adjusted for inflation. Both picked up the Oscar for best picture.
Almost two decades later, Michael Moore’s Oscar-winning Fahrenheit 9/11 remains the top-grossing doc of all time among any genre, and not just political, and still holds the record for top openings, unadjusted. Fahrenheit debuted to $23.9 million domestically from 868 theaters on its way to a North American cume of $119.2 million and $222 million globally, not adjusted for inflation.
Heading into the weekend, tensions were high. Melania was tracking to open in the $5 million range from 1,778 theaters, or enough to beat the $5 million debut of Angel Studios’ doc After Death from 2,645 theaters in 2023 and claim the best opening for a documentary in a decade. But some exhibitors weren’t so convinced, based on sluggish ticket sales and an endless stream of social posts showing auditoriums where only a smattering of tickets had been sold (it’s hard to remember a non-concert doc that’s been so scrutinized in terms of its opening number). Some cinema owners downgraded their projections to as low as $2 million to $4 million. By Friday afternoon, almost every Hollywood studio showed Melania coming in between $8 million to $9 million after looking at grosses and consulting with relieved exhibitors.
Melania clearly appears to benefiting by promotion from the bully pulpit, as President Trump entreats his followers to see the film, while grassroots marketing campaigns from conservative groups are expected to send moviegoers to theaters in red-leaning states and red-leaning top markets, such as Orange County in California.
It won’t be helped by movie critics, however, as early reviews from major media outlets have been scathing. (Many box office pundits say Trump supporters will expect negative reviews from what they consider to the left-leaning media.)
The decision to open Melania in more than 20 markets overseas, where Prime Video has a huge footprint, was a bold move, considering how controversial of a figure her husband is. He’s presently in a tussle with South Africa, where a distributor pulled Melania from release earlier this week. And there’s been a torrent of bad press coming out of Europe regarding empty theaters (just as in the U.S.).
From Amazon’s point of view, ponying up $40 million is part of making good on its promise to become a major theatrical player and help struggling cinemas with a varied slate of product, alongside servicing its streaming customers. Since it is a doc, Melania may only play exclusively in cinemas for two weekends (or at least 10 days), meaning a potential streaming launch timed to the Valentine’s Day/President’s Day weekend. While Amazon is more inoculated from churn than rival streaming services, it still has to attract new subs, along with feeding its conservative-leaning Prime members. And it will get two marketing campaigns for the price of one by going relatively quickly to the home, a popular tactic across all of Hollywood
Melania is opening opposite a slew of films, including 20th Century’s Rachel McAdams thriller Send Help, the Sam Raimi-directed title that now looks to open $16 million or $18 million domestically, likewise ahead of expectations after earning a glowing 93 percent critics score on Rotten Tomatoes.The darkly comic horror-thriller stars McAdams and Dylan O’Brien as coworkers stranded on a desert island, and sports a glowing 93 percent critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes. According to THR‘s review, the R-rated pic “boasts an audacious concept that is superbly realized by Raimi’s filmmaking, which milks every bizarre situation for all it’s worth.”
In a second twist, indie pic Iron Lung from Mark Fischbach (aka the Markiplier) of YouTube gaming fame, is also tipped to open in that range. At least one rival studio is showing it coming in ahead of Send Help; box office observers say it will all come down to how front-loaded Iron Lung is. The film, helmed by Fischbach in is directorial debut, is based on the submarine simulation horror game of the same name that was developed and published by David Szymanski, who helped with the film’s screenplay and makes a cameo.
Disney’s 2025 year-end holiday holdovers Zootopia 2 and Avatar: Fire and Ash are expected to round out the top five, followed by Amazon’s Mercy.
Statham’s Shelter may only manage seventh-place finish with $4 million in its opening. The Black Bear released had hoped to come in between $5 million and $7 million.
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