The biggest movies at this weekend’s worldwide box office won’t be from Hollywood — sorry, Wuthering Heights — but rather China, where the Year of the Fire Horse has been in full swing since Tuesday.
Overall, we’re hearing from distribution sources that Gower sees the Top 5 movies alone doing a combined total of $805M for the six-day stretch of Tuesday through Sunday. Realize that Hollywood’s highest week ever at the domestic B.O. was $536.4M, when Avengers: Endgame led the April 26-May 2, 2019, frame. We could never reach such scale.
According to Maoyan, total box office since opening across all titles screening during the Chinese New Year window has reached RMB 3.1 billion ($452.6M) to date. This figure also includes carryovers. Note that Hollywood films aren’t allowed to open in China during the Chinese New Year stretch, but they can hold on to screens, read Zootopia 2 and Avatar: Fire and Ash.
Imax over Feb. 17-19 has collected $14.5M at its auditoriums. The large-format exhibitor’s market share in the Middle Kingdom is 3.5%, achieved on less than 1% of the total screens.
It remains to be seen whether this year will rival last year’s $965.4M New Year’s mega-haul, which was led by Yu Yang’s animated sequel Ne Zha 2 ($430.3M). So far during the first 3 days of New Year 2026, Pegasus 3, Han Han’s F1-like racecar-driver movie starring Shen Teng, is leading the bunch with $219.5M, of which Imax is driving $13.4M. Imax indexed at 7% on the pic’s opening day with $6.3 million, delivering a franchise-best opening day gross and opening index. The previous movie (unadjusted for inflation and currency swings) opened to $105.6M ($4.6M) from Imax and finaled at $422.3M off a 9.7 on Maoyan. This one has a 7.5M Douban score out of 10 with Gower predicting a No. 1 win at $400M for Pegasus 3 in a movie that is attracting everybody from kids to 80-year-olds. Interesting that AG China lifetime’s forecast for the movie is at $420M to half-billion, but now sources believe it’s much higher at $610M-$700M. The blurb for Pegasus 3: Bearing the glory of being the “King of Bayanbulak,” Zhang Chi once again embarks on his racing journey, aiming not only to win the race but also to achieve something beyond the competition itself.
In second place is Zhang Yimou-directed espionage movie Scare Out, which is aimed at ages 18-60, with a Feb. 17-19 box office of $70.5M. Gower is forecasting a $160M 6-day opening with a final cume of $300M. Imax is delivering $300K. Douban score is 6.3/10. When vital intelligence is leaked, a national security team vows to find the traitor, but arrests failed repeatedly. As tension mounts, suspicion turns inward to the team itself. Chaos ensues. The Pic stars Jackson Yee (Yi Yangqianxi) and Zhu Yilong.
Family animated title Bonnie Bears: The Hidden Protector is aiming for third with $54.2M over the last three days and a six-day projected at $110M. Huida Lin directs the pic. Gower foresees the final B.O. for the pic at $189M. Logline: Briar, Bramble and Vick encounter the legendary Year Monster, Nian, who bestows them with mysterious powers, thrusting them into the hidden, chaotic, magic-infused realm of Eve City.
Fourth is Blades of the Guardians: Wind Rises in the Desert starring Wu Jing and Jet Li (remember him?) and directed by Yuen Woo-Ping. The movie is based on a Chinese manga and pulling in a younger audiences ages 20-40, we hear, with a Feb. 17-19 cume of $49M (Imax $800K so far) and Gower projection of $95M for the weekend and ultimate end gross between $155M-$185M. Blurb for Blades of the Guardians: Dao Ma, the “second most wanted fugitive,” who is entrusted by his benefactor, the chief of Mo family clan, to take on a mysterious escort mission-escorting the “most wanted fugitive,” to Chang’an.
In fifth is the Jackie Chan live-action movie Panda Plan 2: The Magical Tribe with $17M over the last 3 days on its way to $40M per Gower, and $60M-$72M final. Families, yes, but older guys are still into Chan.
Sources tell us that Chinese audiences, whose moviegoing tastes change rapidly, are embracing more Hollywood-style local titles with broad stories and VFX versus the patriotic movies of yore, i.e. Wolf Warrior ($81.4M final, unadjusted for currency swings and inflation). Such politically themed fare would be hard sell to today’s audiences. Although unemployment is high among the younger, college-educated demographic, moviegoing isn’t that expensive and still has momentum. Tier 1 and 2 cities can charge around $10 (non large-format), while lower0tier cities can charge around $4-$7 per ticket.
In regards to box office trajectory of local Chinese New Year movies, they often can be back-loaded. Presales are less predictive than they used to be, and Day 2 or 3 holds — driven largely by word-of-mouth — tend to determine the ultimate pecking order. As such, early audience scores matter.