April showers don’t just bring May flowers — they also bring Oscar green shoots. Even as the final throes of the 2026 Oscar cycle dominated the first three months of the calendar year, a number of ultra-early 2027 contenders had their moments in theaters and on the festival circuit between Jan. 1 and March 31.
It goes without saying, though, that not all of those films will flower into full-fledged Oscar movies. To that end, Gold Derby plucked five of the more viable contenders — and five obvious pretenders — from the first quarter of 2026. From out of this world adventures to period misfires, it’s already been quite a ride.
Phil Lord and Chris Miller’s space odyssey has already amazed, amazed, amazed at the box office, emerging as 2026’s first certified blockbuster. And while money alone can’t buy Oscar attention, the bevy of positive reviews and overall good vibes around the movie and leading man Ryan Gosling should buoy its awards hopes, especially in the crafts categories. The big question is just how quickly Amazon MGM will switch over from funding Project Hail Mary’s theatrical campaign to its awards campaign. Warner Bros. bided its time with Sinners last year, allowing Ryan Coogler’s film to bask in its spring commercial success before relaunching it as a prestige awards player in the late summer ahead of the fall deluge — a pivot that ultimately paid off in a historic number of Oscar nods. PHM won’t reach Sinners’s 16-nomination stratosphere, but it won’t need a Hail Mary pass to put some nods on the board.
Pretender: The Bride!
If Project Hail Mary is 2026’s biggest success story so far, Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Bride is the young year’s biggest goat — not to be confused with that other GOAT. Boasting a reported $90 million price tag, the movie struggled commercially and critically, although star Jessie Buckley avoided a Norbit situation thanks to Warner Bros. helpfully delaying the release until after the final Oscar voting window, ensuring her Hamnet victory would continue unimpeded. For the record, The Bride! does have its admirers who appreciate the audacity of Gyllenhaal’s ambition in spite of the movie’s mixed execution. But that cult isn’t big enough to get this particular bride down the aisle to an Oscar.
Contender: Josephine
Gemma Chan, Mason Reeves, and Channing Tatum appear in JosephineCourtesy Sundance Institute/Greta Zozula
In terms of film festival superstars, there’s only one name you need to remember: Josephine. Writer-director Beth de Araújo’s sophomore feature hit the Sundance jackpot, picking up both the Grand Jury Prize and the Audience Award in the U.S. Dramatic Competition. It’s first movie to score both those honors since CODA back in 2021… and we all know how that played out. Josephine also posted positive notices at the Berlin Film Festival and was subsequently acquired by newbie distributor, Sumerian Pictures. While the film’s difficult subject matter could be a barrier to entry for some audiences, there is a path towards Oscar contention in certain categories, led by a potential first-time Best Supporting Actor nod for Channing Tatum who was overlooked for his Jerry Maguire-esque star turn in last year’s underappreciated Roofman.
Pretender: Wuthering Heights
Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi certainly got pulses racing on the press tour for Saltburn mastermind Emerald Fennell’s appropriately salty take on the vintage Emily Brontë novel. But after all that build-up, the movie itself didn’t exactly cause critics or audiences to swoon, posting solid, but not exceptional, box-office grosses and Rotten Tomatoes scores. Breaking into the major races was always going to be a stretch, but the mixed reaction to Wuthering Heights suggests that it may not be as competitive in the craft categories as we initially thought, especially with more period pictures on the horizon from The Odyssey to Wicker. Even the Charli xcx songs have struggled to stay top of mind… or top of the charts.
Contender: The Christophers
Ian McKellen may be an acting wizard, but he has yet to grasp that One Statuette to rule them all. The beloved stage and screen veteran is 0-for-2 when it comes to the Oscars, with a lone 1999 Best Actor nomination for Gods and Monsters and a 2002 Best Supporting Actor nod for The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring. After a lengthy hiatus from main character parts in major motion pictures, McKellen scores a memorable lion in winter star turn as a reclusive artist in The Christophers, which hails from the dynamic duo of director Steven Soderbergh and screenwriter Ed Solomon. It’s a juicy part and the actor makes a meal out of it to the delight of festival audiences from Toronto to Sonoma, where The Christophers just won the Audience Award for Best Film. Leave it to McKellen to paint his masterpiece at 86 years young.
Pretender: Midwinter Break
Speaking of British acting legends overdue for Academy Award wins, Lesley Manville and Ciarán Hinds — both of whom have one Oscar nod apiece, she for 2017’s Phantom Thread and he for 2021’s Belfast — joined forces for this quiet, restrained marital drama from acclaimed theater director, Polly Findlay. Unfortunately, the movie is just a little too quiet and restrained to make any sort of noise in the awards race, especially with a mid-February berth. At least both actors got to enjoy an extended vacation in Amsterdam.
Contender: Ha-Chan Shake Your Booty!
Rinko Kikuchi in ‘Ha-Chan, Shake Your Booty!’Courtesy Sundance Institute
Sony Pictures Classics has been keeping this particular Sundance acquisition out of the spotlight since Park City, but expect star Rinko Kikuchi’s dance card to fill up once the fall festival season approaches. Previously nominated for Best Supporting Actress for her breakout role in 2006’s Babel, the Japanese actress gets to show off both comedic and dramatic moves in Josef Kubota Wladyka’s well-reviewed feature, playing a widower who develops an unhealthy crush on her ballroom dance instructor. While the film’s protracted runtime occasionally leads it to trip over its own feet, Kikuchi delivers a crowdpleasing performance that may just sweep awards voters off their feet.
Pretender: Hoppers
Pixar was in need a hit after Elio failed to launch last year, and this mind-swapping romp certainly succeeded at getting families into theaters, to the tune of nearly $300 million worldwide and counting. But that’s a mere fraction of what Toy Story 5 is expected to reap when it lands in June, and that Andrew Stanton-directed installment will be the studio’s main awards horse given the franchise’s storied Oscar history. Toy Story 3 and 4 both won Best Animated Feature statuettes, while the former is among the three feature-length cartoons that have received Best Picture nominations. With Woody and Buzz back together again, Hoppers is destined to left in the toy chest come awards season.
Contender: André Is an Idiot
Debuting at the 2025 Sundance Film Festival, Tony Benna’s acclaimed documentary finally arrived in theaters earlier this March, which also happens to be National Colorectal Cancer Awareness Month. And that date isn’t at all coincidental given that the film depicts what happened to the titular “idiot,” ad exec André Ricciardi, after he skipped a colorectal screening and was subsequently diagnosed with Stage 4 colon cancer. As the title suggests, the film paints a darkly funny — and deeply emotional — portrait of Ricciardi’s battle with the disease that keeps it advocacy from tipping over into preachiness. Of all the Best Documentary contenders released so far this year, André Is an Idiot boasts the best title… and the most memorable ending.
Pretender: Melania
Project Hail Melania? That appears to be the general tone and tenor of Brett Ratner’s much-pilloried film about Melania Trump’s second time serving as America’s first lady. Given the reception, it’s unclear whether Amazon MGM intends even a cursory FYC campaign for Melania. But at least one awards group already has it on their radar; the Razzies have announced that Ratner’s movie is a “shoo-in” for multiple 2027 dishonors.