Last year, Disney released two new live-action remakes that produced wildly different results at the box office. Snow White was one of the most infamous bombs of the year, earning just $205.6 million worldwide. In stark contrast, Lilo & Stitch broke records en route to a $1.038 billion global haul, becoming one of just four 2025 movies to reach that impressive milestone. A reasonable takeaway to have is that Disney stands a better chance at achieving success when they remake animated films that are more current and have a stronger appeal with younger viewers. That bodes well for this summer’s Moana remake, and now some box office tracking is available for that title.
According to Deadline, Moana is currently estimated to earn around $85 million domestically during its opening weekend. If that projection holds, Moana will have a much softer debut when compared to Lilo and Stitch ($146 million three-day; $182.6 million Memorial Day four-day). It’ll also rank below some of the most notable Disney live-action remakes of the past several years (see the table below), but there are still reasons to be optimistic about its long-term prospects.
MovieOpening Weekend (Domestic)The Lion King$191.7 millionBeauty and the Beast$174.7 millionLilo & Stitch$146 millionAlice in Wonderland$116.1 millionThe Jungle Book$103.2 millionThe Little Mermaid$95.5 millionAladdin$91.5 millionMoana$85 million (projection)
Is The Moana Remake in Trouble at the Box Office?
As you can see in the table, Moana occupies a bit of a middle ground when it comes to Disney live-action openings. Right now, it isn’t poised to topple some of the Mouse House’s biggest hits, but it’s on track to fare much better than some of the studio’s biggest disappointments, like the aforementioned Snow White ($42.2 million) and Dumbo ($45.9 million). What’s more is that Moana projections are in the same ballpark as last year’s How to Train Your Dragon remake ($84.6 million), which could put it on a path to find box office success.
How to Train Your Dragon wasn’t as big of a smash as Lilo & Stitch, but it still ended its run with $636.5 million worldwide (against a $150 million production budget). That proved to be more than enough to warrant a sequel, and a live-action remake of How to Train Your Dragon 2 is already in the works. If Moana is able to replicate the performance of How to Train Your Dragon, it could ultimately be in good shape. It may not reach $1 billion like some expected heading into the summer, but $630+ million isn’t anything to sneeze at. As a point of comparison, the original animated Moana earned $643.3 million worldwide. 2024’s Moana 2 broke records with a $1.059 billion haul.
That said, box office projections are not an exact science, and it remains to be seen how Moana‘s estimates will fluctuate over the next few weeks. It’s releasing at a fascinating time on the Hollywood calendar, fresh on the heels of both Toy Story 5 and Minions & Monsters. Both of those animated movies are targeting families and should be massive draws (Toy Story 5 could break a franchise box office record). This means there may not be as strong of an appetite for yet another family friendly film so soon, which could end up hurting Moana. Word of mouth could have a big role to play here. If Moana reviews are positive, more people could be inclined to check it out on the big screen. Of course, Moana is premiering in close proximity to Spider-Man: Brand New Day, so general audiences could opt to pass on Disney’s remake as they wait Marvel’s latest release.
It’ll be interesting to see how the public responds to the Moana remake. It feels different from the other Disney live-action remakes because the original animated series is still ongoing. Given the nature of Moana 2‘s ending, Moana 3 is all but a guarantee (even if it hasn’t been officially announced yet). Some fans are probably looking forward more to that installment than a retelling of the first movie (which is only a decade old). Some of the biggest Disney remakes are titles from the studio’s ’90s renaissance, and Lilo & Stitch originated in the 2000s. The passage of more time means there’s a greater sense of nostalgia for those works, and perhaps more interest in seeing reinterpretations in a different medium. This summer’s Moana could have its work cut out for itself opening in the thick of a busy July, but for now, there are some encouraging signs.
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